US Economy Getting Better, Global Instability Weighing on Rates

Investors returning from a hypothetical vacation starting March 1st would have luckily missed the whipsawing in the 10-year Treasury note over the past two weeks. We at SNWAM monitor interest rates daily and find the recent volatility originating from global uncertainty as nothing new. Since the beginning of the month, Russia has increased its presence in the Crimea region of Ukraine, and data show the Chinese economy may not be growing as fast as predicted. In response, investors have sought the safety of Treasury bonds. The 10-year Treasury note is roughly flat month-to-date, but has swung from a low of 2.59% up to 2.85% in the interim. We continue to maintain our thesis that current adverse global issues are transitory and that US growth will propel interest rates higher in 2014. In short, we safeguard client assets by looking through economic noise and are focusing instead on robust positive trends in US economic growth. Things are getting better, not worse.