Economic Data Preview

U.S. macroeconomics will be front and center this week, with a number of Tier-one economic data releases and a Federal Reserve meeting having the potential to move the financial markets.  Home sales and home prices, 2Q GDP, inflation data, wage gains and nonfarm payrolls all will be reported.  After a weak first quarter, investors will look to GDP data to assess whether the US economy had the strength to bounce back in Q2. Estimates are for growth of 2.9%, which would reverse the 2.9% contraction in Q1.  As GDP relates to monetary policy, which is a major focus for us as bond investors, the inflation, wage and employment numbers are of particular importance.  We don’t expect the Federal Reserve to change its policy tone on Wednesday when it releases its meeting statement, but should the PCE inflation data (due out Thursday) and jobs and wage numbers (both due out on Friday) show continued acceleration, the Fed’s next policy meeting may have a less dovish tone, which would certainly affect markets, and interest rates in particular.